Validación Semanal: Realidad vs Pronóstico

Semana Epidemiológica 7 | 9-15 febrero 2026

333 Series evaluadas
6.9% SMAPE nacional medio
0.53 MASE nacional medio
165/300 Precisión ≤25%

Panel de Desempeño Nacional

Semana 7 | 9-15 febrero 2026 | Modo general

Alzheimer (G30)

14.0% SMAPE
46 Real
40 Pronóstico
MASE 0.45
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Deepar BUENO

Parkinson (G20)

4.4% SMAPE
162 Real
155 Pronóstico
MASE 0.55
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Ensemble EXCELENTE

Depresión (F32)

2.3% SMAPE
2,975 Real
2,906 Pronóstico
MASE 0.59
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Ensemble EXCELENTE

Resumen Nacional

Comparación agregada por padecimiento y sexo

PadecimientoSexoRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 46 40 14.0% 0.45 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 23 14 48.6% 0.52 Stacking REGULAR
Mujeres 27 24 11.8% 0.51 Ensemble BUENO
Parkinson (G20) General 162 155 4.4% 0.55 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Hombres 103 71 36.8% 0.50 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 80 76 5.1% 0.61 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Depresión (F32) General 2,975 2,906 2.3% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Hombres 818 879 7.2% 0.76 Prophet EXCELENTE
Mujeres 2,219 2,162 2.6% 0.46 Ensemble EXCELENTE

Desempeño Regional

4 regiones sociales con desglose por sexo

Metropolitana alta (4 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 6 9 40.0% 0.53 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 4 5 22.2% 0.43 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 4 5 22.2% 0.56 Stacking BUENO
Parkinson (G20) General 39 42 7.4% 0.23 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 25 16 43.9% 0.30 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 20 15 28.6% 0.34 Deepar REGULAR
Depresión (F32) General 1,021 1,046 2.4% 0.56 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 294 320 8.5% 0.74 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 752 832 10.1% 0.77 Deepar BUENO

Urbana media (15 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 24 26 8.0% 0.10 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 12 11 8.7% 0.21 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 14 14 0.0% 0.07 Deepar EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 76 76 0.0% 0.18 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 44 41 7.1% 0.15 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 39 30 26.1% 0.05 Deepar REGULAR
Depresión (F32) General 1,019 1,010 0.9% 0.39 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 271 230 16.4% 0.53 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 779 745 4.5% 0.32 Deepar EXCELENTE

Rural / dispersa (7 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 9 7 25.0% 0.09 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 4 2 66.7% 0.16 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 5 5 0.0% 0.18 Deepar EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 30 39 26.1% 0.81 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 23 15 42.1% 0.62 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 15 14 6.9% 0.95 Deepar EXCELENTE
Depresión (F32) General 546 599 9.3% 0.45 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 145 148 2.0% 0.52 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 419 413 1.4% 0.42 Deepar EXCELENTE

Sur-Sureste vulnerable (6 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 7 7 0.0% 0.21 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 3 2 40.0% 0.22 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 4 3 28.6% 0.26 Deepar REGULAR
Parkinson (G20) General 17 14 19.4% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 11 8 31.6% 0.25 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 6 8 28.6% 0.06 Deepar REGULAR
Depresión (F32) General 389 350 10.6% 0.69 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 108 99 8.7% 0.75 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 269 288 6.8% 0.50 Deepar EXCELENTE

Detalle por Entidad Federativa

Modo general — 32 entidades + Nacional

Alzheimer (G30)

EntidadRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 46 40 14.0% 0.45 Deepar BUENO
Aguascalientes 0 0 0.0% 0.29 Deepar EXCELENTE
Baja California 1 2 66.7% 0.64 Prophet FALLO
Baja California Sur 1 0 200.0% N/A Deepar FALLO
Campeche 0 1 — 0.90 Prophet N/A
Chiapas 1 1 0.0% 0.78 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Chihuahua 5 2 85.7% 0.30 Deepar FALLO
Ciudad de México 1 1 0.0% 0.19 Deepar EXCELENTE
Coahuila 2 2 0.0% 0.81 Prophet EXCELENTE
Colima 5 1 133.3% 0.99 Ensemble FALLO
Durango 4 2 66.7% 0.77 Prophet FALLO
Guanajuato 2 0 200.0% 0.27 Deepar FALLO
Guerrero 0 0 0.0% 0.72 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Hidalgo 0 1 — 0.73 Prophet N/A
Jalisco 3 5 50.0% 0.42 Deepar REGULAR
Michoacán 1 0 200.0% 0.27 Deepar FALLO
México 0 1 — 0.11 Deepar N/A
Morelos 1 1 0.0% 0.92 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Nayarit 5 0 200.0% 0.27 Deepar FALLO
Nuevo León 2 2 0.0% 0.57 Prophet EXCELENTE
Oaxaca 4 2 66.7% 0.72 Prophet FALLO
Puebla 0 2 — 0.51 Deepar N/A
Querétaro 0 1 — 0.79 Prophet N/A
Quintana Roo 0 0 0.0% 0.73 Deepar EXCELENTE
San Luis Potosí 0 1 — 0.75 Prophet N/A
Sinaloa 1 3 100.0% 0.15 Deepar FALLO
Sonora 0 1 — 0.57 Prophet N/A
Tabasco 1 1 0.0% 0.82 Prophet EXCELENTE
Tamaulipas 2 1 66.7% 0.18 Deepar FALLO
Tlaxcala 0 0 0.0% 0.34 Deepar EXCELENTE
Veracruz 3 2 40.0% 0.13 Deepar REGULAR
Yucatán 1 1 0.0% 0.77 Prophet EXCELENTE
Zacatecas 0 1 — 0.79 Prophet N/A
EXCELENTE 11 BUENO 1 REGULAR 2 FALLO 11 N/A 8 Total: 46 real / 38 pron | Error acumulado: 17.4%

Parkinson (G20)

EntidadRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 162 155 4.4% 0.55 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 1 1 0.0% 0.24 Deepar EXCELENTE
Baja California 4 3 28.6% 0.08 Deepar REGULAR
Baja California Sur 2 2 0.0% 0.63 Deepar EXCELENTE
Campeche 1 0 200.0% 0.84 Deepar FALLO
Chiapas 0 2 — 0.06 Deepar N/A
Chihuahua 7 9 25.0% 0.15 Deepar BUENO
Ciudad de México 5 2 85.7% 0.02 Deepar FALLO
Coahuila 4 3 28.6% 0.28 Deepar REGULAR
Colima 8 4 66.7% 0.13 Deepar FALLO
Durango 10 2 133.3% 0.12 Deepar FALLO
Guanajuato 9 5 57.1% 0.08 Deepar FALLO
Guerrero 4 1 120.0% 0.14 Deepar FALLO
Hidalgo 2 2 0.0% 0.43 Deepar EXCELENTE
Jalisco 19 20 5.1% 0.12 Deepar EXCELENTE
Michoacán 2 5 85.7% 0.14 Deepar FALLO
México 11 9 20.0% 0.07 Deepar BUENO
Morelos 5 8 46.2% 0.18 Deepar REGULAR
Nayarit 2 1 66.7% 0.74 Prophet FALLO
Nuevo León 4 5 22.2% 0.13 Deepar BUENO
Oaxaca 3 6 66.7% 0.06 Deepar FALLO
Puebla 3 31 164.7% 0.83 Deepar FALLO
Querétaro 0 1 — 0.42 Deepar N/A
Quintana Roo 1 0 200.0% 0.62 Deepar FALLO
San Luis Potosí 1 3 100.0% 0.17 Deepar FALLO
Sinaloa 11 10 9.5% 0.04 Deepar EXCELENTE
Sonora 7 4 54.5% 0.29 Deepar FALLO
Tabasco 2 3 40.0% 0.04 Deepar REGULAR
Tamaulipas 6 10 50.0% 0.25 Deepar REGULAR
Tlaxcala 0 1 — 0.77 Prophet N/A
Veracruz 17 18 5.7% 0.07 Deepar EXCELENTE
Yucatán 10 4 85.7% 0.26 Deepar FALLO
Zacatecas 1 1 0.0% 0.86 Ensemble EXCELENTE
EXCELENTE 8 BUENO 3 REGULAR 5 FALLO 14 N/A 3 Total: 162 real / 176 pron | Error acumulado: 8.6%

Depresión (F32)

EntidadRealPronóstico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 2,975 2,906 2.3% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 18 33 58.8% 0.08 Deepar FALLO
Baja California 106 131 21.1% 0.09 Deepar BUENO
Baja California Sur 14 17 19.4% 0.12 Deepar BUENO
Campeche 26 37 34.9% 0.23 Deepar REGULAR
Chiapas 75 57 27.3% 0.33 Deepar REGULAR
Chihuahua 165 145 12.9% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Ciudad de México 507 459 9.9% 0.16 Deepar EXCELENTE
Coahuila 68 49 32.5% 0.05 Deepar REGULAR
Colima 52 46 12.2% 0.30 Deepar BUENO
Durango 68 71 4.3% 0.41 Deepar EXCELENTE
Guanajuato 125 99 23.2% 0.08 Deepar BUENO
Guerrero 71 80 11.9% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Hidalgo 83 69 18.4% 0.11 Deepar BUENO
Jalisco 239 216 10.1% 0.18 Deepar BUENO
Michoacán 108 122 12.2% 0.05 Deepar BUENO
México 176 277 44.6% 0.09 Deepar REGULAR
Morelos 74 61 19.3% 0.04 Deepar BUENO
Nayarit 68 68 0.0% 0.17 Deepar EXCELENTE
Nuevo León 99 125 23.2% 0.32 Deepar BUENO
Oaxaca 64 55 15.1% 0.17 Deepar BUENO
Puebla 66 99 40.0% 0.42 Deepar REGULAR
Querétaro 27 24 11.8% 0.30 Deepar BUENO
Quintana Roo 36 17 71.7% 0.17 Deepar FALLO
San Luis Potosí 43 52 18.9% 0.09 Deepar BUENO
Sinaloa 66 91 31.8% 0.15 Deepar REGULAR
Sonora 75 63 17.4% 0.20 Deepar BUENO
Tabasco 52 81 43.6% 0.18 Deepar REGULAR
Tamaulipas 51 68 28.6% 0.09 Deepar REGULAR
Tlaxcala 23 23 0.0% 0.37 Deepar EXCELENTE
Veracruz 127 116 9.1% 0.08 Deepar EXCELENTE
Yucatán 136 76 56.6% 0.25 Deepar FALLO
Zacatecas 67 55 19.7% 0.20 Deepar BUENO
EXCELENTE 6 BUENO 16 REGULAR 8 FALLO 3 N/A 0 Total: 2,975 real / 2,982 pron | Error acumulado: 0.2%

Semáforo por Entidad

Vista rápida (modo general) del desempeno de los modelos

EXCELENTE: SMAPE ≤10%BUENO: SMAPE ≤25%REGULAR: SMAPE ≤50%FALLO: SMAPE >50%N/A: Sin datos / cero real
EntidadAlzheimer (G30)Parkinson (G20)Depresión (F32)
Aguascalientes
0.0%
0.0%
58.8%
Baja California
66.7%
28.6%
21.1%
Baja California Sur
200.0%
0.0%
19.4%
Campeche
—
200.0%
34.9%
Chiapas
0.0%
—
27.3%
Chihuahua
85.7%
25.0%
12.9%
Ciudad de México
0.0%
85.7%
9.9%
Coahuila
0.0%
28.6%
32.5%
Colima
133.3%
66.7%
12.2%
Durango
66.7%
133.3%
4.3%
Guanajuato
200.0%
57.1%
23.2%
Guerrero
0.0%
120.0%
11.9%
Hidalgo
—
0.0%
18.4%
Jalisco
50.0%
5.1%
10.1%
Michoacán
200.0%
85.7%
12.2%
México
—
20.0%
44.6%
Morelos
0.0%
46.2%
19.3%
Nayarit
200.0%
66.7%
0.0%
Nuevo León
0.0%
22.2%
23.2%
Oaxaca
66.7%
66.7%
15.1%
Puebla
—
164.7%
40.0%
Querétaro
—
—
11.8%
Quintana Roo
0.0%
200.0%
71.7%
San Luis Potosí
—
100.0%
18.9%
Sinaloa
100.0%
9.5%
31.8%
Sonora
—
54.5%
17.4%
Tabasco
0.0%
40.0%
43.6%
Tamaulipas
66.7%
50.0%
28.6%
Tlaxcala
0.0%
—
0.0%
Veracruz
40.0%
5.7%
9.1%
Yucatán
0.0%
85.7%
56.6%
Zacatecas
—
0.0%
19.7%