Validacion Semanal: Realidad vs Pronostico

Semana Epidemiologica 15 | 6-12 abril 2026

333 Series evaluadas
4.0% SMAPE nacional medio
0.61 MASE nacional medio
149/290 Precision ≤25%

Panel de Desempeno Nacional

Semana 15 | 6-12 abril 2026 | Modo general

Alzheimer (G30)

6.9% SMAPE
45 Real
42 Pronostico
MASE 0.48
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Ensemble EXCELENTE

Parkinson (G20)

1.3% SMAPE
149 Real
151 Pronostico
MASE 0.76
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Prophet EXCELENTE

Depresion (F32)

3.7% SMAPE
2,981 Real
3,093 Pronostico
MASE 0.59
0 1.0 2.0
Excelente
Ensemble EXCELENTE

Resumen Nacional

Comparacion agregada por padecimiento y sexo

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 45 42 6.9% 0.48 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Hombres 17 17 0.0% 0.57 Prophet EXCELENTE
Mujeres 29 27 7.1% 0.51 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Parkinson (G20) General 149 151 1.3% 0.76 Prophet EXCELENTE
Hombres 84 84 0.0% 0.65 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Mujeres 67 65 3.0% 0.59 Stacking EXCELENTE
Depresion (F32) General 2,981 3,093 3.7% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Hombres 875 781 11.4% 1.03 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 2,330 2,322 0.3% 0.46 Ensemble EXCELENTE

Desempeno Regional

4 regiones sociales con desglose por sexo

Metropolitana alta (4 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 6 9 40.0% 0.53 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 1 4 120.0% 0.43 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 6 7 15.4% 0.56 Stacking BUENO
Parkinson (G20) General 29 41 34.3% 0.23 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 18 13 32.3% 0.30 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 11 15 30.8% 0.34 Deepar REGULAR
Depresion (F32) General 1,121 1,038 7.7% 0.56 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 336 196 52.6% 0.74 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 838 801 4.5% 0.77 Deepar EXCELENTE

Urbana media (15 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 28 22 24.0% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 12 5 82.4% 0.21 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 16 12 28.6% 0.07 Deepar REGULAR
Parkinson (G20) General 71 63 11.9% 0.18 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 37 35 5.6% 0.15 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 34 27 23.0% 0.05 Deepar BUENO
Depresion (F32) General 975 1,008 3.3% 0.39 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 236 224 5.2% 0.53 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mujeres 756 708 6.6% 0.32 Deepar EXCELENTE

Rural / dispersa (7 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 6 8 28.6% 0.09 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 1 0 200.0% 0.16 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 5 6 18.2% 0.18 Deepar BUENO
Parkinson (G20) General 28 37 27.7% 0.81 Deepar REGULAR
Hombres 13 16 20.7% 0.62 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 15 16 6.5% 0.95 Deepar EXCELENTE
Depresion (F32) General 512 592 14.5% 0.45 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 186 152 20.1% 0.52 Deepar BUENO
Mujeres 475 446 6.3% 0.42 Deepar EXCELENTE

Sur-Sureste vulnerable (6 entidades)

PadecimientoSexoRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Alzheimer (G30) General 5 2 85.7% 0.21 Deepar FALLO
Hombres 3 1 100.0% 0.22 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 2 3 40.0% 0.26 Deepar REGULAR
Parkinson (G20) General 21 20 4.9% 0.10 Deepar EXCELENTE
Hombres 16 12 28.6% 0.25 Deepar REGULAR
Mujeres 7 0 200.0% 0.06 Deepar FALLO
Depresion (F32) General 373 306 19.7% 0.69 Deepar BUENO
Hombres 117 69 51.6% 0.75 Deepar FALLO
Mujeres 261 268 2.6% 0.50 Deepar EXCELENTE

Detalle por Entidad Federativa

Modo general — 32 entidades + Nacional

Alzheimer (G30)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 45 42 6.9% 0.48 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 1 0 200.0% 1.14 Ensemble FALLO
Baja California 0 1 — 0.53 Stacking N/A
Baja California Sur 1 0 200.0% N/A Ensemble FALLO
Campeche 0 0 0.0% 0.82 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Chiapas 2 1 66.7% 0.80 Prophet FALLO
Chihuahua 6 4 40.0% 0.54 Prophet REGULAR
Ciudad de Mexico 1 1 0.0% 0.57 Prophet EXCELENTE
Coahuila 1 2 66.7% 0.81 Prophet FALLO
Colima 7 2 111.1% 0.73 Deepar FALLO
Durango 3 1 100.0% 1.00 Stacking FALLO
Guanajuato 1 1 0.0% 0.84 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Guerrero 0 1 — 0.78 Prophet N/A
Hidalgo 1 1 0.0% 0.73 Prophet EXCELENTE
Jalisco 2 3 40.0% 0.77 Prophet REGULAR
Michoacan 1 1 0.0% 0.70 Stacking EXCELENTE
Mexico 1 1 0.0% 0.55 Stacking EXCELENTE
Morelos 0 1 — 0.92 Ensemble N/A
Nayarit 0 1 — 0.55 Prophet N/A
Nuevo Leon 2 2 0.0% 0.57 Prophet EXCELENTE
Oaxaca 2 1 66.7% 0.72 Prophet FALLO
Puebla 2 1 66.7% 0.81 Ensemble FALLO
Queretaro 0 1 — 0.88 Ensemble N/A
Quintana Roo 1 0 200.0% 0.81 Ensemble FALLO
San Luis Potosi 1 2 66.7% 1.00 Ensemble FALLO
Sinaloa 2 2 0.0% 0.61 Stacking EXCELENTE
Sonora 1 1 0.0% 0.57 Prophet EXCELENTE
Tabasco 0 1 — 0.63 Ensemble N/A
Tamaulipas 3 0 200.0% 0.18 Deepar FALLO
Tlaxcala 0 0 0.0% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Veracruz 2 3 40.0% 0.68 Ensemble REGULAR
Yucatan 0 1 — 0.61 Ensemble N/A
Zacatecas 1 0 200.0% 0.79 Ensemble FALLO
EXCELENTE 11 BUENO 0 REGULAR 3 FALLO 12 N/A 7 Total: 45 real / 37 pron | Error acumulado: 17.8%

Parkinson (G20)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 149 151 1.3% 0.76 Prophet EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 0 1 — 0.71 Prophet N/A
Baja California 5 3 50.0% 0.42 Stacking REGULAR
Baja California Sur 1 1 0.0% 0.82 Prophet EXCELENTE
Campeche 1 2 66.7% 1.00 Ensemble FALLO
Chiapas 5 3 50.0% 0.57 Stacking REGULAR
Chihuahua 10 8 22.2% 0.67 Prophet BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 10 9 10.5% 0.46 Ensemble BUENO
Coahuila 0 4 200.0% 0.56 Prophet FALLO
Colima 5 4 22.2% 0.80 Stacking BUENO
Durango 7 7 0.0% 0.83 Prophet EXCELENTE
Guanajuato 3 5 50.0% 0.79 Prophet REGULAR
Guerrero 4 4 0.0% 0.82 Prophet EXCELENTE
Hidalgo 1 2 66.7% 0.69 Ensemble FALLO
Jalisco 9 16 56.0% 0.95 Prophet FALLO
Michoacan 3 5 50.0% 1.00 Ensemble REGULAR
Mexico 8 8 0.0% 1.46 Prophet EXCELENTE
Morelos 8 6 28.6% 0.66 Prophet REGULAR
Nayarit 8 1 155.6% 0.62 Ensemble FALLO
Nuevo Leon 2 4 66.7% 0.55 Prophet FALLO
Oaxaca 1 2 66.7% 0.67 Prophet FALLO
Puebla 6 6 0.0% 1.06 Prophet EXCELENTE
Queretaro 3 1 100.0% 0.63 Prophet FALLO
Quintana Roo 1 2 66.7% 1.14 Stacking FALLO
San Luis Potosi 5 4 22.2% 0.63 Ensemble BUENO
Sinaloa 8 10 22.2% 0.61 Ensemble BUENO
Sonora 4 6 40.0% 0.81 Ensemble REGULAR
Tabasco 1 4 120.0% 0.77 Stacking FALLO
Tamaulipas 12 8 40.0% 0.88 Ensemble REGULAR
Tlaxcala 0 2 — 0.72 Ensemble N/A
Veracruz 6 14 80.0% 0.74 Ensemble FALLO
Yucatan 12 4 100.0% 0.26 Deepar FALLO
Zacatecas 0 1 — 0.63 Prophet N/A
EXCELENTE 6 BUENO 5 REGULAR 7 FALLO 12 N/A 3 Total: 149 real / 157 pron | Error acumulado: 5.4%

Depresion (F32)

EntidadRealPronostico SMAPEMASEMotorVeredicto
Nacional 2,981 3,093 3.7% 0.59 Ensemble EXCELENTE
Aguascalientes 28 30 6.9% 0.46 Prophet EXCELENTE
Baja California 109 107 1.9% 0.62 Prophet EXCELENTE
Baja California Sur 15 12 22.2% 0.52 Stacking BUENO
Campeche 37 28 27.7% 1.01 Stacking REGULAR
Chiapas 65 50 26.1% 1.64 Ensemble REGULAR
Chihuahua 157 134 15.8% 0.10 Deepar BUENO
Ciudad de Mexico 633 531 17.5% 0.73 Prophet BUENO
Coahuila 48 53 9.9% 0.92 Prophet EXCELENTE
Colima 27 30 10.5% 0.30 Deepar BUENO
Durango 105 86 19.9% 0.99 Ensemble BUENO
Guanajuato 97 86 12.0% 0.08 Deepar BUENO
Guerrero 83 59 33.8% 1.05 Stacking REGULAR
Hidalgo 61 71 15.2% 0.78 Prophet BUENO
Jalisco 223 207 7.4% 0.72 Prophet EXCELENTE
Michoacan 95 105 10.0% 0.05 Deepar EXCELENTE
Mexico 202 232 13.8% 0.57 Ensemble BUENO
Morelos 79 70 12.1% 0.57 Prophet BUENO
Nayarit 130 59 75.1% 0.17 Deepar FALLO
Nuevo Leon 63 119 61.5% 1.12 Ensemble FALLO
Oaxaca 57 43 28.0% 0.17 Deepar REGULAR
Puebla 42 84 66.7% 0.98 Prophet FALLO
Queretaro 33 23 35.7% 0.85 Prophet REGULAR
Quintana Roo 26 29 10.9% 0.72 Ensemble BUENO
San Luis Potosi 52 56 7.4% 0.76 Prophet EXCELENTE
Sinaloa 74 93 22.8% 0.73 Prophet BUENO
Sonora 62 61 1.6% 0.53 Stacking EXCELENTE
Tabasco 79 57 32.4% 0.18 Deepar REGULAR
Tamaulipas 39 64 48.5% 0.63 Prophet REGULAR
Tlaxcala 17 34 66.7% 0.37 Deepar FALLO
Veracruz 84 121 36.1% 0.76 Stacking REGULAR
Yucatan 109 100 8.6% 0.91 Stacking EXCELENTE
Zacatecas 50 47 6.2% 0.20 Deepar EXCELENTE
EXCELENTE 10 BUENO 11 REGULAR 8 FALLO 4 N/A 0 Total: 2,981 real / 2,881 pron | Error acumulado: 3.4%

Semaforo por Entidad

Vista rapida (modo general) del desempeno de los modelos

EXCELENTE: SMAPE ≤10%BUENO: SMAPE ≤25%REGULAR: SMAPE ≤50%FALLO: SMAPE >50%N/A: Sin datos / cero real
EntidadAlzheimer (G30)Parkinson (G20)Depresion (F32)
Aguascalientes
200.0%
—
6.9%
Baja California
—
50.0%
1.9%
Baja California Sur
200.0%
0.0%
22.2%
Campeche
0.0%
66.7%
27.7%
Chiapas
66.7%
50.0%
26.1%
Chihuahua
40.0%
22.2%
15.8%
Ciudad de Mexico
0.0%
10.5%
17.5%
Coahuila
66.7%
200.0%
9.9%
Colima
111.1%
22.2%
10.5%
Durango
100.0%
0.0%
19.9%
Guanajuato
0.0%
50.0%
12.0%
Guerrero
—
0.0%
33.8%
Hidalgo
0.0%
66.7%
15.2%
Jalisco
40.0%
56.0%
7.4%
Michoacan
0.0%
50.0%
10.0%
Mexico
0.0%
0.0%
13.8%
Morelos
—
28.6%
12.1%
Nayarit
—
155.6%
75.1%
Nuevo Leon
0.0%
66.7%
61.5%
Oaxaca
66.7%
66.7%
28.0%
Puebla
66.7%
0.0%
66.7%
Queretaro
—
100.0%
35.7%
Quintana Roo
200.0%
66.7%
10.9%
San Luis Potosi
66.7%
22.2%
7.4%
Sinaloa
0.0%
22.2%
22.8%
Sonora
0.0%
40.0%
1.6%
Tabasco
—
120.0%
32.4%
Tamaulipas
200.0%
40.0%
48.5%
Tlaxcala
0.0%
—
66.7%
Veracruz
40.0%
80.0%
36.1%
Yucatan
—
100.0%
8.6%
Zacatecas
200.0%
—
6.2%